Across the 38 largest U.S. cities, the number of children under 18 has dropped 6 percent over the past decade, compared with just a 1 percent decline nationwide, according to a Wall Street Journal analysis of census data. The decline is sharper among the youngest kids, with children under 5 in big cities down 15 percent, versus 7 percent nationally. Families are moving away, and fewer babies are being born to begin with.
Two Forces Are Driving the Exodus
Families cite rising costs, safety worries, and quality of life as reasons for leaving cities, according to the Journal. More residents without kids are choosing to keep it that way, put off by what raising a family costs in money and in time. It’s happening at every income level, from wealthier cities like San Jose and Denver to more affordable ones like Albuquerque and Milwaukee.
San Jose Sees the Steepest Drop
San Jose, California, saw the steepest drop of any large city, with children under 5 down 34 percent in a decade. Ernie and Samantha Solis, a firefighter and teacher, paid about $25,000 a year in daycare for each of their two sons before leaving in June 2021 for Star, Idaho. Ernie now flies into San Jose weekly, staying in free firefighter dorms before returning home each Friday.
New York’s Child Care and Housing Costs Add Up
In New York City, the number of children has fallen 8 percent over the past decade, the Journal found. Parents need to earn $334,000 to comfortably afford child care for a 2-year-old, according to the city comptroller’s office. It could take a household 65 years to save a $265,000 down payment, according to an analysis from Rocket Mortgage. Local home prices track local incomes, said Redfin economist Chen Zhao.
One Family’s Move From Queens to Pennsylvania
Raheim Bazile told the Journal he once paid $750 a month to rent a room in Queens while working as a U.S. Postal Service truck driver, about a quarter of his take-home pay. After getting engaged in 2023, he and his wife Kierra moved to Easton, Pennsylvania, a city of about 30,000 people, where their son was born earlier this year. “Here, I feel much lighter,” said Bazile, who now works in real estate.
Even Affordable Cities Aren’t Immune
More affordable cities aren’t spared either. In Albuquerque, New Mexico, the number of children has fallen 15 percent, with about half the drop from more families leaving than arriving, per the Journal’s analysis. Milwaukee, Wisconsin, has seen an 11 percent decline. Even affluent Denver is down 9 percent, split between families moving away and a 7 percent drop in local births.
El Paso’s Quiet Cul-de-Sacs
In El Paso, Texas, the total population has stayed flat, but the number of children has dropped 9 percent, driven by a 30 percent decline in kids under 5. Enrollment losses have pushed the El Paso Independent School District to close elementary schools. Fernando Escobedo, 55, said the annual block party on his cul-de-sac never returned after COVID. “The people who are left are the parents, older parents,” he said.
Births Are Falling Nationwide Too
Nationally, U.S. births have fallen 9 percent over the past decade, the Journal found, largely because fewer women are having children in their teens and 20s. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported over 3.6 million births last year, a 1 percent annual decline, according to the Independent. Birth rates in large urban counties fell 18 percent between 2010 and 2024, according to Connor O’Brien of the Institute for Progress.
Safety and Lifestyle Also Shape the Decline
In Milwaukee, Taneal Jordan, 38, said her family’s doorbell camera has captured people stealing packages, and a nearby playground has rusty, broken equipment. She and her husband are planning a move to Green Bay’s suburbs for their 3-year-old son. In Philadelphia, where children are down 6 percent, Nija Rivera, 39, said having a child would likely mean giving up the dance and yoga classes she takes now, something she missed out on as a kid.
A Few Cities Are Bucking the Trend
Not every city is losing children. Thirteen of the 38 largest U.S. cities, many in the affordable Sunbelt, saw their child population grow 7 percent over the decade even as overall population rose 12 percent, the Journal found. New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani is working on a free childcare pilot for about 40 children of city workers, according to the Independent. Economists warn an aging population means fewer future taxpayers, and fewer kids also means less support for public schools, per the Journal.
